People Before Profit’s unionist votes a myth
Posted By: May 18, 2016
“In other words the voters wanted to protest by giving Sinn Féin a kick up the backside for not delivering any tangible social or economic benefit to West Belfast since 2011, or some would say since 1983. On the other hand the voters didn’t want to give away any nationalist seats so they then gave second preferences on down to SF and the SDLP. ”
People Before Profit’s unionist votes a myth
Brian Feeney. Irish News (Belfat). Wednesday, May 18, 2016
The People Before Profit MLAs have designated themselves ‘socialist’ at Stormont which they no doubt are, though the space is too small for them to write more accurately, ‘front for the Trotskyist Socialist Party’.
Nevertheless the designation is a meaningless gesture in the context of Stormont’s Assembly. However, they describe themselves, they are technically ‘other’ and can therefore play no part in serious contests in the assembly.
While no-one can dispute their socialism other than objecting that they won’t admit they’re Trots in case they couldn’t get elected, what can be disputed is the claim that they got ‘a substantial chunk’ of unionist support. They didn’t.
Proportional representation is a wonderfully transparent system for examining where votes came from and where they went to. It is clear beyond a shadow of doubt that the PBP MLAs’ votes were green. A helpful letter writer to the Irish Times provided a forensic examination of Gerry Carroll’s vote in West Belfast which demonstrated first that his voters are very sophisticated. As former Sinn Féin voters, they are used to voting down the ballot paper. As a result, remarkably only twelve of Carroll’s surplus votes were non-transferable.
Where did his 3,117 surplus go? Overwhelmingly to Sinn Féin and the SDLP in a 75:25 ratio. In other words the voters wanted to protest by giving Sinn Féin a kick up the backside for not delivering any tangible social or economic benefit to West Belfast since 2011, or some would say since 1983. On the other hand the voters didn’t want to give away any nationalist seats so they then gave second preferences on down to SF and the SDLP. The Workers Party got 253.
If you’re interested, the DUP and UUP got fifteen votes each. That’s how few West Belfast unionists PBP convinced they are non-sectarian. A quick glance at the unionist vote in West Belfast will show it was higher than in 2011. In short the PBP claim that large numbers of unionists crossed the divide is a fantasy.
The same is true in Foyle. Eamonn McCann got 74 when Independent Unionists were eliminated. He got 85 from the DUP surplus whereas Mark H Durkan got 217 and Colm Eastwood 159. McCann then had to wait until Stage 8 of the count when he was elected under the quota by the green surpluses of Martin McGuinness, Colm Eastwood and Mark H Durkan. He made it because of his lifetime service as a tribune of the people in Derry, a charismatic figure admired for his sincerity and consistency over, wait for it, 50 years. He didn’t make it because a substantial chunk of unionists voted for him. They didn’t. Unionists voted overwhelmingly for Unionist candidates, then gave the SDLP four times as many transfers as McCann.
Why would Unionists believe PBP is an attractive option? Here’s how they describe themselves. “People Before Profit is a 32-county party that stands in the tradition of James Connolly who predicted that partition would produce a carnival of reaction… We want working class unity to develop from a 32-county anti-austerity movement that challenges both Irish states.’’ Yes. That would certainly bring voters pouring out onto the streets in the Shankill or the Fountain – but not to vote PBP.
Conversely you can see how that line of approach would appeal to many voters in Nationalist west Belfast or the Creggan. It always has. It has because it’s green and because Connolly’s red version of nationalism has always attracted a substantial following in working-class Nationalist districts. That’s why Gerry Fitt called his party Republican Labour. Fitt also claimed massive support from the Shankill yet when he opposed the hunger strike he lost his council seat and his Westminster seat.
In the assembly election PBP performed a valuable service by jolting Sinn Féin into realising the extent of disaffection in their heartlands in Belfast and Derry. The voters administered the shock in such a way as not to risk losing any Nationalist seat to unionists. Thus for example in north Belfast where the DUP is strong PBP was crushed.
Sinn Féin lost a seat in west Belfast and the SDLP lost one in Derry but to another green party – PBP.
People Before Profit’s unionist votes a myth
Brian Feeney. Irish News (Belfat). Wednesday, May 18, 2016
The People Before Profit MLAs have designated themselves ‘socialist’ at Stormont which they no doubt are, though the space is too small for them to write more accurately, ‘front for the Trotskyist Socialist Party’.
Nevertheless the designation is a meaningless gesture in the context of Stormont’s Assembly. However, they describe themselves, they are technically ‘other’ and can therefore play no part in serious contests in the assembly.
While no-one can dispute their socialism other than objecting that they won’t admit they’re Trots in case they couldn’t get elected, what can be disputed is the claim that they got ‘a substantial chunk’ of unionist support. They didn’t.
Proportional representation is a wonderfully transparent system for examining where votes came from and where they went to. It is clear beyond a shadow of doubt that the PBP MLAs’ votes were green. A helpful letter writer to the Irish Times provided a forensic examination of Gerry Carroll’s vote in West Belfast which demonstrated first that his voters are very sophisticated. As former Sinn Féin voters, they are used to voting down the ballot paper. As a result, remarkably only twelve of Carroll’s surplus votes were non-transferable.
Where did his 3,117 surplus go? Overwhelmingly to Sinn Féin and the SDLP in a 75:25 ratio. In other words the voters wanted to protest by giving Sinn Féin a kick up the backside for not delivering any tangible social or economic benefit to West Belfast since 2011, or some would say since 1983. On the other hand the voters didn’t want to give away any nationalist seats so they then gave second preferences on down to SF and the SDLP. The Workers Party got 253.
If you’re interested, the DUP and UUP got fifteen votes each. That’s how few West Belfast unionists PBP convinced they are non-sectarian. A quick glance at the unionist vote in West Belfast will show it was higher than in 2011. In short the PBP claim that large numbers of unionists crossed the divide is a fantasy.
The same is true in Foyle. Eamonn McCann got 74 when Independent Unionists were eliminated. He got 85 from the DUP surplus whereas Mark H Durkan got 217 and Colm Eastwood 159. McCann then had to wait until Stage 8 of the count when he was elected under the quota by the green surpluses of Martin McGuinness, Colm Eastwood and Mark H Durkan. He made it because of his lifetime service as a tribune of the people in Derry, a charismatic figure admired for his sincerity and consistency over, wait for it, 50 years. He didn’t make it because a substantial chunk of unionists voted for him. They didn’t. Unionists voted overwhelmingly for Unionist candidates, then gave the SDLP four times as many transfers as McCann.
Why would Unionists believe PBP is an attractive option? Here’s how they describe themselves. “People Before Profit is a 32-county party that stands in the tradition of James Connolly who predicted that partition would produce a carnival of reaction… We want working class unity to develop from a 32-county anti-austerity movement that challenges both Irish states.’’ Yes. That would certainly bring voters pouring out onto the streets in the Shankill or the Fountain – but not to vote PBP.
Conversely you can see how that line of approach would appeal to many voters in Nationalist west Belfast or the Creggan. It always has. It has because it’s green and because Connolly’s red version of nationalism has always attracted a substantial following in working-class Nationalist districts. That’s why Gerry Fitt called his party Republican Labour. Fitt also claimed massive support from the Shankill yet when he opposed the hunger strike he lost his council seat and his Westminster seat.
In the assembly election PBP performed a valuable service by jolting Sinn Féin into realising the extent of disaffection in their heartlands in Belfast and Derry. The voters administered the shock in such a way as not to risk losing any Nationalist seat to unionists. Thus for example in north Belfast where the DUP is strong PBP was crushed.
Sinn Féin lost a seat in west Belfast and the SDLP lost one in Derry but to another green party – PBP.
