“Meanwhile on Wednesday, the Queen’s speech outlined 21 bills in Westminster’s programme for government for the coming year, which shows that even a medieval monarchy can outsprint both Irish governments in corporate planning.”


Patrick Murphy. Irish News (Belfast). Saturday, May 21, 2016

If the Olympic Games had a competition for writing programmes for government (PfG), Ireland would probably come last, well behind the likes of Azerbaijan.

The Dublin government’s recent attempt at a PfG sounds like a country and western song (“no child should be left behind in the economic recovery”) and while Stormont’s PfG remains unpublished, reports suggest that large amounts of social and economic manna will rise up from Stormont, before falling gently and equitably across the six counties, blanketing us in deep drifts of goodness.

So what is it with the Irish? Why can they not write programmes for government? The answer is that they can, but they are constrained, north and south, by what Harold Macmillan called events, dear boy, events. In Dublin, the events are political. In Belfast, they are financial.

Events in the Dáil are unusual, even for a parliament which has witnessed Charles Haughey and Bertie Ahern. The government is a minority coalition between Fine Gael (FG) and independents, with conditional support from Fianna Fáil (FF) in opposition. How wonderfully mature and enlightened, I hear you say, which suggests that you do not quite appreciate what is happening.

After the election, FF had a three-way choice: enter coalition with FG (an unthinkable perversion for many in both parties); agree to a minority government, or force a second general election. FF was not ready for another election, even though it performed well in the first one.

It would probably have gained a few additional seats in a second poll, but it needs more re-organisation, particularly in Dublin, to win enough seats to form a government. That will take a year or two, which means that while many have hailed the Dáil’s novel arrangements as a new form of politics, it is just an old form of electioneering. Fianna Fáil is playing for time, by reserving the right to exercise what is effectively a petition of concern.

It is a clever, but risky, strategy. Fianna Fáil must claim the credit for preventing the government from doing anything unpopular, while at the same time not allowing it to gain support by achieving anything too popular. Thus the Dáil does not really have a government, more a slow-burning election campaign, which hinders detailed planning.

This explains its new-found appreciation of country and western lyrics. (The PfG hopes “that the benefits are felt inside every doorstep”. Oh well, tough luck on the homeless, then.) Although it has general (and un-costed) targets on house building, job creation and public spending, much of its content is presented in terms of “clear unambiguous high level ambition”, including “more inclusive prosperity”.

Without measurable aims, dates for achievement and financial costing, a programme for government is just a glossy brochure. If you can’t measure what you intend to do, how will you know when you have it done – and without a target date, how will you know when to measure?

The draft Stormont programme for government appears to be written in the same style. (Maybe Dublin Foreign Minister, Charlie Flanagan, smuggled a load of haziness into Belfast on Wednesday?) Dublin has opted for ambition but Belfast appears intent on “aspirations for change”. (Not actual change, mind you, just aspirations.)

While Stormont’s problems may yet include the political, its initial challenge is financial. It has very little money and, by reducing corporation tax, it has decided to have less. But the problem is that it does not know how much money it will not have.

Traditionally it solved financial embarrassment by blaming the UUP and the SDLP (but not compliant Alliance) for the executive’s failings. (How to succeed in accountancy, Chapter 1: Blame others.)

The two big parties no longer have the same scope for that approach. Their failure to build financial conditions into negotiations with the British government over 20 years has now come back to haunt them (and us). This explains their “aspirational” programme for government.

It is an approach which risks eroding the basis of public sector accountability. We can only hope that Conor Murphy (SF) and Simon Hamilton (DUP) become ministers to bring a degree of realism to at least two Stormont departments.

Meanwhile on Wednesday, the Queen’s speech outlined 21 bills in Westminster’s programme for government for the coming year, which shows that even a medieval monarchy can outsprint both Irish governments in corporate planning.

But as Team Ireland trails in last, just as they are closing the Olympic stadium, remember that although Stormont and the Dáil have no idea what they intend to do, the Irish people can always feast on high level ambition and aspirations for change. Beat that, Azerbaijan.