A proverbial man on a flying horse could see that unionists are stuck. But the American visitors might just recognise the nonsense of making pan-unionist discontent the pivot of talks.

To put it mildly, unionists throughout their history have disliked every proposal for change. What the Americans may not realise, because Sinn Fein will hardly say so, is that for the moment at least republicans are equally stuck.

Both political communities have changed shape since, but the awkward truth about the Good Friday agreement is that it was carried by the overwhelming support of the Catholic/Nationalist community, supported by the Republic, plus the merest face-saver of narrow unionist support over unionist rejection. A Protestant/unionist 50/50 split bedevilled the outcome.

For most of the past decade the twist has been that the loudest 1998 antis, in effect all but Jim Allister, set up camp in the agreement’s structures while continuing to decry the underlying premise of parity of esteem.

Unionists who supported the deal, meanwhile, have steadily lost confidence and developed misgivings – not that the David Trimble era breathed clarity or enthusiasm. No unionist leader has been able or willing to sell the new Northern Ireland as better.

The DUP sidled into the GFA structures without signing up, claiming they refined the deal Trimble did. “We don’t like it but we have to make do” is a message that saps the political will. “Republicans were defeated,” they say intermittently. “We won.”

So they themselves still reject the basic principles of the settlement, but republicans settled? “Well if we won then,” ask those at the bottom of the heap, “how come Martin McGuinness is our Deputy First Minister?” The other difference with 1998 is that loyalist paramilitaries then were a positive force, jeering at DUP rejectionists. While Ian Paisley’s DUP posed as hard men, the guys with prison records backed negotiation. Convicted killers flanked Trimble for comfort as he walked into talks. They made the difference on the unionist side.

But as everyone knows loyalist political energy was sucked back into crime and bloody feuds. The tiny loyalist parties disintegrated or were stripped of credibility.

The flirtation with being forward-looking is long gone. Present-day loyalism aligns with, often pushes, protests in defence of flags and emblems, street violence. Unionist politicians keep a nervous eye on each other and on possible paramilitary-backed rivals for votes. Chasing the street is this year’s fashion in unionist leadership.

Then there’s that growing sense in unionism that numbers and time are against them. It will never be as good as it used to be. It will probably be worse. But because unionists have yet to accept that the old order is gone, they are locked into complaint about every manifestation of change. The Orange Order still ask why they cannot walk where they choose. Unionists demand respect for unionist/British culture but will never tell their people sharing Stormont requires reciprocal respect for nationalist flags, emblems, dates. Loyal orders and their marching bands are a dead weight, a dragging anchor. The main reason the Parades Commission “must go” is that it made a difference – mechanism of approving routes established, Drumcree neutralised. It is one measure of the poverty of unionist political leadership that a decade ago we were farther forward. Incapable of finding a role beyond parading and celebrating historic victories, the loyal orders parade the main stage. Those sashed, be-collared brethren beaming with the visitors last week must have been thinking “Look at this. Here we are, everybody wants to meet us, and we’re saying the same thing we always said.” Without even being a member of the party, the Orange’s man is number two in the DUP’s team. He is also a Protestant clergyman, a former Special Branch man. All bases covered in the race back to basics – bad for unionism, which is bad for everyone.

Sinn Fein’s biggest worry should be how to make the new deal come good in the districts, mostly Catholic, that still top the deprivation league.

Instead republican leaders must plead with their “base” to bide their time, and hope the coming elections will provide a compensating boost. Like wider nationalism, they can only cling to the potential for progress while political unionism marches on-stage in a sash.