Fianna Fáil giving SDLP and Sinn Féin problems
Posted By: September 16, 2016
Alex Kane. Irish News (Belfast). Friday, September 16, 2016
When I interviewed Micheál Martin in February 2014 he told me that he was preparing to field Fianna Fáil candidates in Northern Ireland: “But we have to be very incremental. It isn’t going to be a big bang. We made mistakes before – saying that Fianna Fáil was going north, but frankly, there wasn’t anything behind it in terms of capacity. That won’t happen under my leadership. When I make a step forward it has to be with a bit of beef and bodies, personnel and a campaign plan.”
He wouldn’t be pushed on dates at that point, but he was clearly looking beyond the 2015 UK general election, the 2016 Assembly election and the next Irish general election, which didn’t take place until February 2016.
The Irish election was good for Martin. He did much better than anyone expected and, crucially, also saw off a major challenge from Sinn Féin. And looking north he saw that the SDLP was continuing to slip; almost 3 per cent down in the general election and its worst ever assembly election. In his interview with me he had remarked upon the SDLP’s ongoing decline: “The SDLP was maybe too focused on the structures and on leading personalities and those were a factor in the decline. When people think of John Hume they don’t think of someone who was just an ordinary, mediocre party leader. They think of someone who fundamentally changed the game. They think of someone who was a visionary, who had the extra commitment that had gone beyond the ordinary party bonds: and he made a difference. Hume and that leadership were leaders.” Ouch.
Last weekend Martin said that Fianna Fáil “is looking to contest the 2019 local elections. That remains a target.” He also confirmed that the party would spend about a year working on a document that would explore and set out the practicalities of reunification: “There are a whole range of issues that we’re proposing to put a team together to do some work on. What are we talking about when we talk about a united Ireland?”
So, has he spotted a gap in the electoral market up here? Recent opinion polls –including a BBC one last week – suggested that the SDLP and Sinn Féin remained seemingly incapable of maximising the pro-unity vote. I have argued in previous Irish News columns that it would require serious input from Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael before the unity debate would get any real traction. In other words, people who might be interested in eventual unity wanted to hear from the key players down south before they made up their mind one way or the other.
If Fianna Fáil fields candidates here in three years time and does so on the back of a costed, thought-through platform on a form of Irish unity that they would prioritise if they returned to government, then yes, that has the potential to be a game changer. The sort of game changer that could destabilise Sinn Féin, destroy the SDLP and seriously spook unionism. On the other hand, the project could fall flat on its face (there’ll be another Irish election before then, anyway), while a split in the nationalist ranks (with SF/SDLP/FF/PBP all looking for votes) could suit the DUP very nicely.
Yet, particularly from a unionist perspective, it will be interesting to see how Fianna Fáil sets out the unity stall. It’s going to have to be something more substantial than the vision Martin set out to me in 2014: “I would love to see a united Ireland. But how does one define what one means by a united Ireland? I would say a genuine unity of people who can work in harmony, meet in harmony, engage in harmony and break down the barriers that are still there between north and south in many instances. The political definition of that would have to reflect a unity of people rather than a unity of territory: and to allow that to develop in a non-threatening manner.” Hmm. Two years later and I’m still not sure what he means.
He continued: “My view is that we have to begin by allowing the Good Friday Agreement to work and make Northern Ireland work. Let’s make the institutions – that have been voted for by the people – work first. Can we get that done? That ultimately leads to the unity of hearts and minds that I have spoken about. I don’t think that making the Good Friday Agreement work or making the institutions work defeats the idea of a united Ireland at all. There are bigger immediate issues – like education and employment – to solve in the north before unity.”
Two years ago that was all airy-fairy stuff. By 2019 he will need an awful lot of meat on those bones if he is to make an electoral impact here. But for now, he has given the SDLP and Sinn Féin – particularly the SDLP – something to think about. That’s probably no bad thing.
When I interviewed Micheál Martin in February 2014 he told me that he was preparing to field Fianna Fáil candidates in Northern Ireland: “But we have to be very incremental. It isn’t going to be a big bang. We made mistakes before – saying that Fianna Fáil was going north, but frankly, there wasn’t anything behind it in terms of capacity. That won’t happen under my leadership. When I make a step forward it has to be with a bit of beef and bodies, personnel and a campaign plan.”
He wouldn’t be pushed on dates at that point, but he was clearly looking beyond the 2015 UK general election, the 2016 Assembly election and the next Irish general election, which didn’t take place until February 2016.
The Irish election was good for Martin. He did much better than anyone expected and, crucially, also saw off a major challenge from Sinn Féin. And looking north he saw that the SDLP was continuing to slip; almost 3 per cent down in the general election and its worst ever assembly election. In his interview with me he had remarked upon the SDLP’s ongoing decline: “The SDLP was maybe too focused on the structures and on leading personalities and those were a factor in the decline. When people think of John Hume they don’t think of someone who was just an ordinary, mediocre party leader. They think of someone who fundamentally changed the game. They think of someone who was a visionary, who had the extra commitment that had gone beyond the ordinary party bonds: and he made a difference. Hume and that leadership were leaders.” Ouch.
Last weekend Martin said that Fianna Fáil “is looking to contest the 2019 local elections. That remains a target.” He also confirmed that the party would spend about a year working on a document that would explore and set out the practicalities of reunification: “There are a whole range of issues that we’re proposing to put a team together to do some work on. What are we talking about when we talk about a united Ireland?”
So, has he spotted a gap in the electoral market up here? Recent opinion polls –including a BBC one last week – suggested that the SDLP and Sinn Féin remained seemingly incapable of maximising the pro-unity vote. I have argued in previous Irish News columns that it would require serious input from Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael before the unity debate would get any real traction. In other words, people who might be interested in eventual unity wanted to hear from the key players down south before they made up their mind one way or the other.
If Fianna Fáil fields candidates here in three years time and does so on the back of a costed, thought-through platform on a form of Irish unity that they would prioritise if they returned to government, then yes, that has the potential to be a game changer. The sort of game changer that could destabilise Sinn Féin, destroy the SDLP and seriously spook unionism. On the other hand, the project could fall flat on its face (there’ll be another Irish election before then, anyway), while a split in the nationalist ranks (with SF/SDLP/FF/PBP all looking for votes) could suit the DUP very nicely.
Yet, particularly from a unionist perspective, it will be interesting to see how Fianna Fáil sets out the unity stall. It’s going to have to be something more substantial than the vision Martin set out to me in 2014: “I would love to see a united Ireland. But how does one define what one means by a united Ireland? I would say a genuine unity of people who can work in harmony, meet in harmony, engage in harmony and break down the barriers that are still there between north and south in many instances. The political definition of that would have to reflect a unity of people rather than a unity of territory: and to allow that to develop in a non-threatening manner.” Hmm. Two years later and I’m still not sure what he means.
He continued: “My view is that we have to begin by allowing the Good Friday Agreement to work and make Northern Ireland work. Let’s make the institutions – that have been voted for by the people – work first. Can we get that done? That ultimately leads to the unity of hearts and minds that I have spoken about. I don’t think that making the Good Friday Agreement work or making the institutions work defeats the idea of a united Ireland at all. There are bigger immediate issues – like education and employment – to solve in the north before unity.”
Two years ago that was all airy-fairy stuff. By 2019 he will need an awful lot of meat on those bones if he is to make an electoral impact here. But for now, he has given the SDLP and Sinn Féin – particularly the SDLP – something to think about. That’s probably no bad thing.
