Fears of border checkpoint return suddenly very real
Posted By: June 25, 2016
“The victorious Leave campaign say they have reclaimed Britain’s sovereignty and brought political accountability closer to home, but by unsettling the status quo that has delivered peace and stability in Britain, Ireland and across Europe, they may have unwittingly precipitated the UK’s demise.”
John Manley. Irish News (Belfast). Saturday, June 25, 2016
The shockwaves from Brexit will be felt across Europe and beyond for some time but it’s likely nowhere will feel them more acutely than Ireland – north and south.
Fears that the border would harden and we’d return to the days of checkpoints and customs posts were consistently and powerfully voiced during the campaign, and in the aftermath of the shock referendum result those concerns have become very real.
The assurances Secretary of State Theresa Villiers and her fellow Leave campaigners gave about zero impact on cross-border movement will likely prove accurate in the immediate future as the process of withdrawal is not expected to happen for at least two-and-a-half years, but the longer term consequences are much less clear.
No-one can say with any certainty what will happen and whether the remaining EU states or the UK itself will choose to harden the border in order to regulate trade, stem immigration or tighten security.
There is also a security threat closer to home.
The prospect of a return to violence in The North as a result of Thursday’s vote was dismissed ahead of the poll as scaremongering, however, while it still remains slight, the turmoil that the referendum outcome has triggered could be seen as an opportunity by those who seek to destabilise things for their own ends.
The imposition of a frontier will only give the otherwise redundant dissident republican cause a claim to legitimacy.
And while the Dublin government regards an open border as a priority, that is not the only concern it will have on foot of Thursday’s result.
The Republic joined the then EEC alongside the UK in 1975 and has prospered as its relationship with both has solidified concurrently.
A Brexit has now complicated this and to some extent leaves the Republic at a disadvantage in its dealings with both.
Moreover, the result in Britain may fuel euroscepticism south of the border and further challenge the received wisdom that for decades has placed the Republic’s best interests firmly in the EU.
The South’s establishment parties are already on the back foot and the expected demand that the remaining member states meet the shortfall caused by the UK’s departure can only put pressure on already strained finances.
Then there is the prospect of the union disintegrating.
Like Northern Ireland, a majority of people in Scotland voted to maintain ties with Brussels, however, now their wishes have been overridden by England and Wales’s desire for Brexit.
It didn’t take long for a fresh push for independence to materialise.
SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon has already indicated that she will initiate the process leading to a second referendum on Scottish independence and many observers believe a ‘Yes’ vote would be more likely next time around, which could only result in further political and economic isolation for Northern Ireland.
The victorious Leave campaign say they have reclaimed Britain’s sovereignty and brought political accountability closer to home, but by unsettling the status quo that has delivered peace and stability in Britain, Ireland and across Europe, they may have unwittingly precipitated the UK’s demise.
John Manley. Irish News (Belfast). Saturday, June 25, 2016
The shockwaves from Brexit will be felt across Europe and beyond for some time but it’s likely nowhere will feel them more acutely than Ireland – north and south.
Fears that the border would harden and we’d return to the days of checkpoints and customs posts were consistently and powerfully voiced during the campaign, and in the aftermath of the shock referendum result those concerns have become very real.
The assurances Secretary of State Theresa Villiers and her fellow Leave campaigners gave about zero impact on cross-border movement will likely prove accurate in the immediate future as the process of withdrawal is not expected to happen for at least two-and-a-half years, but the longer term consequences are much less clear.
No-one can say with any certainty what will happen and whether the remaining EU states or the UK itself will choose to harden the border in order to regulate trade, stem immigration or tighten security.
There is also a security threat closer to home.
The prospect of a return to violence in The North as a result of Thursday’s vote was dismissed ahead of the poll as scaremongering, however, while it still remains slight, the turmoil that the referendum outcome has triggered could be seen as an opportunity by those who seek to destabilise things for their own ends.
The imposition of a frontier will only give the otherwise redundant dissident republican cause a claim to legitimacy.
And while the Dublin government regards an open border as a priority, that is not the only concern it will have on foot of Thursday’s result.
The Republic joined the then EEC alongside the UK in 1975 and has prospered as its relationship with both has solidified concurrently.
A Brexit has now complicated this and to some extent leaves the Republic at a disadvantage in its dealings with both.
Moreover, the result in Britain may fuel euroscepticism south of the border and further challenge the received wisdom that for decades has placed the Republic’s best interests firmly in the EU.
The South’s establishment parties are already on the back foot and the expected demand that the remaining member states meet the shortfall caused by the UK’s departure can only put pressure on already strained finances.
Then there is the prospect of the union disintegrating.
Like Northern Ireland, a majority of people in Scotland voted to maintain ties with Brussels, however, now their wishes have been overridden by England and Wales’s desire for Brexit.
It didn’t take long for a fresh push for independence to materialise.
SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon has already indicated that she will initiate the process leading to a second referendum on Scottish independence and many observers believe a ‘Yes’ vote would be more likely next time around, which could only result in further political and economic isolation for Northern Ireland.
The victorious Leave campaign say they have reclaimed Britain’s sovereignty and brought political accountability closer to home, but by unsettling the status quo that has delivered peace and stability in Britain, Ireland and across Europe, they may have unwittingly precipitated the UK’s demise.
