Crazy to have Remainer captaining Brexit ship
Posted By: July 15, 2016
“She was on the side of those who argued, “our former EU partners will not be minded to give us a good deal if we leave them”. Yet we are now expected to believe that she can deliver the deal she said could not be delivered if we left. This is just crazy. A Remain prime minister, with a majority Remain cabinet and a majority Remain parliamentary party says she can deliver Brexit. No. It’s not going to happen. …
… Brexit will simply mean what she chooses it to mean. And what she will choose it to mean is the ‘I-can’t-believe-it’s-not-butter’ option, in which, to all intents and purposes, the UK stays within the EU.”
Alex Kane. Belfast Telegraph. Friday, July 15, 2016
In the concluding paragraph of last week’s column, I mentioned the nature of the likely contest between Theresa May and Andrea Leadsom: “If you thought Cameron’s ‘Project Fear’ was rough stuff, just wait until Conservative Central Office turns its black-ops and manpower on Leadsom. They don’t want her to win.”
And within a few days – although Leadsom didn’t do herself any favours with her comments about May not being a mother – Central Office had forced her out of the race.
What Leadsom said was stupid, yet no more stupid than some of the stuff that May has said in her role as home secretary; particularly on the issue of immigration. But Central Office had decided that the next leader and prime minister was not coming from the Leave camp. They didn’t want a re-run of the referendum debate during the leadership contest because they knew – if internal polling were true – that upwards of 70 per cent of members had voted Leave. So they did what they do best at moments of crisis. They got rid of the problem.
The last three Conservative prime ministers, Thatcher, Major and now Cameron were brought down by the EU. May, who only has a wafer-thin majority of 12, knows that at least 100 of her MPs want Article 50 triggered as soon as possible. She knows, too, that any sign of backtracking will make her job almost impossible both inside Westminster and across her own party. Yes, her members want to win elections and stay in power, but not if the price is some sort of EU-lite fudge that keeps the UK not quite in and not quite out.
Those close to her say that she is, at heart, a Eurosceptic. Hmm. I also remember being told that Cameron was a Eurosceptic when I criticized him during the ill-fated electoral pact with the UUP (I was working for the party at the time) and yet he still tried to sell the UK’s continuing membership with the flimsiest, most flexible ‘deal’ imaginable. May backed that deal. She backed Cameron on the basis of that deal. She backed Remain on the basis of that deal. Again, as I said in last week’s column, “Given that background how does anyone imagine that she could, let alone would, negotiate a genuine exit strategy?”
Similarly, I have no idea what she means when she says that, “Brexit means Brexit and we’re all Leavers now”. She opposed the Leave campaign: that’s why she sided with those who said that the UK’s interests would be “irreparably damaged” if we left. She was on the side of those who argued, “our former EU partners will not be minded to give us a good deal if we leave them”. Yet we are now expected to believe that she can deliver the deal she said could not be delivered if we left. This is just crazy. A Remain prime minister, with a majority Remain cabinet and a majority Remain parliamentary party says she can deliver Brexit. No. It’s not going to happen.
So it is, of course, very convenient for her and Central Office not to have the sort of leadership contest and internal debate which would have forced her to put all her cards on the table and explain how she would deliver something which she had said couldn’t be delivered. And it’s also very convenient that she has ruled out an early election, for that, too, would have forced her to commit a Brexit strategy to a manifesto which she would then be expected to implement if she won. It would also have forced the majority of her MPs to seek reselection from hundreds of constituency associations that had supported the Leave camp.
In one fell swoop she has turned the Central Office machine to her own purposes – as I said she would – and ensured that Brexit will simply mean what she chooses it to mean. And what she will choose it to mean is the ‘I-can’t-believe-it’s-not-butter’ option, in which, to all intents and purposes, the UK stays within the EU.
I don’t see how she squares the circle on this issue. Maybe the circle cannot be squared. Maybe, like the Labour party, two very clear internal sides can no longer be accommodated in the same party. I suspect that Theresa May is genuinely afraid to leave the EU because she, like so many of the steady-as-she-goes clones around her – and not just Conservatives – doesn’t actually want the bother of governing an independent nation.
Her problem, as it was for Thatcher, Major and Cameron, is that millions of voters disagree with her. June 23 was just round one of a political/constitutional battle which will, eventually, rock Westminster to its very foundations.
Alex Kane. Belfast Telegraph. Friday, July 15, 2016
In the concluding paragraph of last week’s column, I mentioned the nature of the likely contest between Theresa May and Andrea Leadsom: “If you thought Cameron’s ‘Project Fear’ was rough stuff, just wait until Conservative Central Office turns its black-ops and manpower on Leadsom. They don’t want her to win.”
And within a few days – although Leadsom didn’t do herself any favours with her comments about May not being a mother – Central Office had forced her out of the race.
What Leadsom said was stupid, yet no more stupid than some of the stuff that May has said in her role as home secretary; particularly on the issue of immigration. But Central Office had decided that the next leader and prime minister was not coming from the Leave camp. They didn’t want a re-run of the referendum debate during the leadership contest because they knew – if internal polling were true – that upwards of 70 per cent of members had voted Leave. So they did what they do best at moments of crisis. They got rid of the problem.
The last three Conservative prime ministers, Thatcher, Major and now Cameron were brought down by the EU. May, who only has a wafer-thin majority of 12, knows that at least 100 of her MPs want Article 50 triggered as soon as possible. She knows, too, that any sign of backtracking will make her job almost impossible both inside Westminster and across her own party. Yes, her members want to win elections and stay in power, but not if the price is some sort of EU-lite fudge that keeps the UK not quite in and not quite out.
Those close to her say that she is, at heart, a Eurosceptic. Hmm. I also remember being told that Cameron was a Eurosceptic when I criticized him during the ill-fated electoral pact with the UUP (I was working for the party at the time) and yet he still tried to sell the UK’s continuing membership with the flimsiest, most flexible ‘deal’ imaginable. May backed that deal. She backed Cameron on the basis of that deal. She backed Remain on the basis of that deal. Again, as I said in last week’s column, “Given that background how does anyone imagine that she could, let alone would, negotiate a genuine exit strategy?”
Similarly, I have no idea what she means when she says that, “Brexit means Brexit and we’re all Leavers now”. She opposed the Leave campaign: that’s why she sided with those who said that the UK’s interests would be “irreparably damaged” if we left. She was on the side of those who argued, “our former EU partners will not be minded to give us a good deal if we leave them”. Yet we are now expected to believe that she can deliver the deal she said could not be delivered if we left. This is just crazy. A Remain prime minister, with a majority Remain cabinet and a majority Remain parliamentary party says she can deliver Brexit. No. It’s not going to happen.
So it is, of course, very convenient for her and Central Office not to have the sort of leadership contest and internal debate which would have forced her to put all her cards on the table and explain how she would deliver something which she had said couldn’t be delivered. And it’s also very convenient that she has ruled out an early election, for that, too, would have forced her to commit a Brexit strategy to a manifesto which she would then be expected to implement if she won. It would also have forced the majority of her MPs to seek reselection from hundreds of constituency associations that had supported the Leave camp.
In one fell swoop she has turned the Central Office machine to her own purposes – as I said she would – and ensured that Brexit will simply mean what she chooses it to mean. And what she will choose it to mean is the ‘I-can’t-believe-it’s-not-butter’ option, in which, to all intents and purposes, the UK stays within the EU.
I don’t see how she squares the circle on this issue. Maybe the circle cannot be squared. Maybe, like the Labour party, two very clear internal sides can no longer be accommodated in the same party. I suspect that Theresa May is genuinely afraid to leave the EU because she, like so many of the steady-as-she-goes clones around her – and not just Conservatives – doesn’t actually want the bother of governing an independent nation.
Her problem, as it was for Thatcher, Major and Cameron, is that millions of voters disagree with her. June 23 was just round one of a political/constitutional battle which will, eventually, rock Westminster to its very foundations.
