Adams speculation bordering on boring
Posted By: July 23, 2016
The arrival of this summer’s silly season in the Irish media has been marked by two stories. One is the weather. The other is whether Gerry Adams should remain as Sinn Féin leader. (Maybe we could accommodate both by following the weather forecast with a Gerry Adams forecast: Mr Adams will have sunny spells tomorrow, but he will be rather cloudy in what he says the next day.)
Whether the Sinn Féin leader should go or stay is, with respect, none of your business, unless you are a party member. But, you protest, he has been in office since 1983 and he has cost the party electoral support.
He has indeed been leader for 33 years, but that is an observation, not an argument. It becomes an argument only when you can produce the rule which states that all party leaders should resign after a specified period.
His impact on the party’s electoral performance is debatable. Sinn Féin is in a stronger electoral position now than when he took over. Whether someone else could have done better is a fanciful argument which cannot be proven one way or the other.
So you are getting worked up over nothing. The real story is what will happen to Sinn Féin when he retires. The modern party is largely his creation and it is unclear whether a new leader will wish to, or be able to, maintain that creation.
Sinn Féin’s challenge is that it has effectively become two parties and one of them is curtailing the progress of the other. The northern party has painted itself into a political corner. In setting out to represent only nationalists, it has capped its electoral growth and by designating Stormont as its holy grail, it is financially dependent on an austere Westminster.
Many nationalists also see SF as playing second fiddle to the DUP on issues such as an Irish language act, a possible nationalist justice minister and an all-Ireland, post Brexit forum. Arlene Foster is no chuckle sister.
The declining nationalist turnout probably reflects electoral frustration, not just at SF’s failure to deliver social and economic reform, but at the realization that it cannot deliver under the current system of government.
Southern Sinn Féin is much different. Its opposition role in the Dáil is dynamic, creative and challenging. Gerry Adams has surrounded himself with a talented group of TDs who are good communicators, excellent television debaters and convincing contributors in Dáil proceedings. Most of them could succeed him as leader.
In contrast, the majority of Stormont MLAs, with respect, tend to be little more than political ballast and Conor Murphy is one of the few who might reasonably be considered as a leadership candidate. The party’s poor performance in Stormont is now an issue in the Dáil.
For example, when SF recently introduced a Dáil motion banning zero hours contracts, opponents referred to a reported 31,000 people in the north on zero hours under Stormont. The party’s defence was that since it did not hold the employment ministry, it was not responsible, pointing out that it had been “very, very critical of Minister Farry”. Like Enda Kenny in the Dáil, northern Sinn Féin appears to be in government, but only selectively in power.
The challenge for Gerry Adams has been to steer the SF ship to the left and the right at the same time. Now Brexit has brought a new challenge for the party.
Should it stay loyal to the DUP (the “Arlene and I” approach) or should it, as Gerry Adams has said, become “open and imaginative about the possible new constitutional arrangements and political structures that might be needed”? This latter option suggests that the party might wish to distance itself, however slightly, from the Good Friday Agreement and the political noose that is Stormont.
Brexit has brought Sinn Féin to an interesting cross-roads, which means that Gerry Adams will not be going anywhere for a while. What happens when he leaves will be significantly influenced by what he does in the next two years.
For the first time since de Valera’s days the border will feature in the forthcoming Dáil election. Enda Kenny and Micheal Martin are now claiming an expertize on the north which, unlike SF’s, is not burdened with actually being in a turgid government there.
Praise for northern peace no longer translates into southern votes, especially against a resurgent Fianna Fáil. Will SF push for Irish economic unity or stick with Stormont? Only time will tell.
So the long-range Gerry Adams forecast is for rising temperatures across the country and an increasing risk of thunderstorms in the north. There is a lot more weather to come.
