John Manley. Irish News. Belfast. Thursday, December 29, 2016

LITTLE more than a month ago on the anniversary of the Fresh Start agreement, I suggested that the Stormont administration was at its most stable since the restoration of devolution in 1999.

Outstanding housekeeping matters had been sorted, and public bickering between the DUP and Sinn Féin was rare, even on issues where the two had fundamental differences, such as Brexit and dealing with the legacy of the north’s violent past. The strategy of Stormont’s main partners is to manage differences rather than resolve them, and to their credit, they were becoming more adept at that.

The Fresh Start anniversary came roughly three weeks after the DUP leader bounced hubristically on the La Mon hotel stage to chants of “Arlene’s s on fire” and at a time when concerns about the former enterprise minister’s oversight of the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) had yet to gain much airtime. Here was yet another lesson in a year of `upsets’ about how quickly politics can transform.

Mrs. Foster was in China when the BBC Spotlight program became the accelerant on a smoldering controversy that blew up into a firestorm— and it may only be mildly dampened by the Christmas break. Martin McGuinness didn’t travel with the first minister on the trade trip due to health concerns—concerns that haven’t been entirely banished.

And so Stormont finds itself in one of its traditional festive season crises, but this time it’s less circus, more pantomime. The RHI fallout is very different from the deadlock that characterized various talks processes, as those hothouse sessions had been deliberately timed to focus minds and maximize drama. Its other main difference is that the origins of this crisis do not lie in any unresolved matter dating back decades, but it is instead a reflection of anger in the DUP’s own hinterland. To an unprecedented extent, surpassing even the Unionist public’s response to the so-called `Irisgate’ affair, this scandal has undermined the notion that The North’s largest party was “doing what’s right for Northern Ireland” and replaced it with a suspicion that much narrower interests were appeased.

It is somewhat stating the obvious to highlight that the north’s RHI scheme differed from that in Britain due to the absence of cost controls. A more important line of inquiry is to establish the “why” rather than the “ how” meaning any future investigation must examine the motivations for not adopting Britain’s RHI scheme wholesale and whose interests such a deliberate policy switch might have benefited. The resulting embarrassment may well extend beyond the DUP and will probably illustrate Stormont’s collective shortcomings as much as apportioning individual blame.

The public, meanwhile, must also be alert to diversionary stunts that will seek to shift attention away from the RHI scandal and into a more familiar tribal territory. Already there’s a suspicion that Communities Minister Paul Givan’s decision to cut funding to Líofa’s Gaeltacht Bursary scheme is one such gesture executed for the benefit of the DUP base.

Previously when a DUP leader was ousted because of a scandal, it unleashed a level of visceral anger not witnessed since Drumcree. We like to think people are too smart and too comfortable to be led again into something as pointless as the flag protests. That modern day take on `The Grand Old Duke of York’ strategy stemmed from Peter Robinson’s humiliation at the hands of Naomi Long in East Belfast but was presented much moire simplistically as part of a Republican culture war.

In a year that has seen certainties turned on their head, the DUP must surely fear that its turn could be next. In the same way, disillusionment with an apparent self-serving elite saw people in Britain turn their backs on Europe and Americans jettison Hillary Clinton, so too could the electorate lose patience with Arlene Foster.

As we approach the new year, the stability of the Fresh Start honeymoon period is a fading memory, and we are now contemplating the possibility that two of its key protagonists – the first and deputy first minister – may not be around to oversee its full implementation.

In just a matter of weeks, politics in The North may contemplate an entirely new beginning.